Participation, Campaigns, and Elections

Who Votes?

• Voting rates are higher among those with higher socioeconomic status (SES):

  • Income

  • Occupational prestige

  • Education

• Other factors affecting likelihood of voting, aside from SES:

  • Age

  • Race and ethnicity

Legal Factors Depressing Turnout

• Potential voters must register in advance in most states.

• National Voter Registration Act (“Motor Voter”).

• Recent voter identification laws may lower turnout.

Other Factors Reducing Turnout

• Regstration and voting is optional.

• Elections normally held on workdays in most states.

• Limited opportunities for early or absentee voting.

  • All voting by mail only in a few states.

• Decline of social connectedness.

Mobilization and Turnout

• Turnout depends on mobilization by parties and campaigns: get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts.

• Turnout lower in midterm and off-year elections.

• Turnout lowest in primary elections and runoffs.

• Frequent elections and lengthy ballots may lead to voter fatigue.

Other Forms of Participation

Most people do not participate in politics beyond voting.

• Donating to, working on political campaigns.

• Contacting elected officials.

• Attending rallies and political meetings.

• Participating in strikes.

• Boycotting businesses or government services.

• Attending political protests.

• Political violence, including armed conflict.

Why Do People Vote?

• Paradox of voting since chances of affecting election outcomes are small.

• Costs of voting appear to exceed the expected benefits.

• However, sense of fulfilling one's civic duty may be considered a benefit.

Presidential Nominations

• Goal of presidential candidates: earn party nomination by capturing a majority of the delegates available.

• Parties allocate delegates to states and territories using complex formulas, including party support and population.

• Minor parties tend to use state conventions to choose delegates to national convention.

• Some states use precinct caucuses to choose delegates to county, regional, and state conventions who then choose delegates for major parties. Notably, Iowa.

Party Primaries

• Most states use primary elections to select delegates for major parties.

• Open primaries allow any registered voter to participate, regardless of party affiliation.

• Semi-open primaries (or modified open primaries) are limited to registered voters from the party and independent voters.

• Closed primaries are limited to registered voters from the party only.

Delegate Selection Rules

• Democrats require proportional allocation of delegates; generally candidates must get 15% of the vote to receive any delegates.

• Republicans tend to favor winner-takes-all rules: whoever gets the most votes statewide wins all delegates available.

• Both parties reserve some delegate positions for party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs); Democrats tend to have many more of these superdelegates.

• Democrats require quotas of women, minorities, and young people among delegates; Republicans don't.

Why So Complex?

• Discontent with Democratic Party nomination process boiled over at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

• Popular anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy bypassed for vice president Hubert Humphrey, favored by party leaders.

• After election, Democrats formed the McGovern-Fraser Commission to reform their nomination process; changes in state laws led to more primaries for Republicans too.

Critiques of the Nomination Process

• Front-loading of primary calendar has stretched out the presidential nomination campaign; Iowa caucus now in early January.

• Privileged positions of Iowa and New Hampshire; neither state is very representative of Democrats' base in particular.

• Expense of campaign has led to fundraising starting years before election; the invisible primary contributes to the “permanent campaign.”

The Electoral College

President chosen via the Electoral College:

• Each state has at least three electors.

• 48 states and DC use “winner-takes-all” rule:

  • Candidate with most votes gets all electoral votes.

• Maine and Nebraska are different:

  • Winner in each congressional district gets one electoral vote each; statewide winner gets two more.

• If no majority (winner needs 270 of 538): president chosen by House, VP chosen by the Senate.

The Electoral College in 2024

Effect of the Electoral College

• Electoral College system means candidates focus their campaigns on a few battleground states and ignore most of the country.

• May distort politics by causing parties to focus on interests of battleground states rather than nation as a whole.

• Candidate with most popular votes does not necessarily win the electoral vote.

Elections to the House and Senate

• Senators elected statewide (“at large”) since ratification of 17th Amendment; only face reelection every six years.

• House members elected from districts every two years (except in small states with only one seat, where they too are elected “at large”).

• Most states use direct primaries to choose major party nominees; some states use caucus systems.

• Most states use plurality elections: candidate who receives the most votes wins the seat.

Electoral Reform?

• Directly elect the president?

  • Plurality winner (e.g. National Popular Vote Compact).

  • Alternatives: run-off voting; instant run-off; approval.

• Proportional Representation in Congress?

How Voters Decide

• Most important factor is party identification (or partisanship): one's sense of attachment to one of the two major parties.

• Political scientists use seven-point scale.

• “Strong” partisans particularly loyal.

• Voters' partisanship can change over time.

• Partisanship appears to “update” based on changing political conditions and circumstances.

More Factors Affecting Voting

• Retrospective voting: evaluating candidates based on past performance.

  • Economic voting in particular.

• Relatively little issue voting due to information costs. More likely for salient or valence issues.

• Candidate attributes: “character”; temperament; appearance; personality.

Who Wins Presidential Nominations?

• Building a “war chest” is important early on, before contests start: the invisible primary.

• Biggest factor in nomination contests appears to be momentum.

• Other factors matter too: party factions, media coverage and “expectations,” etc.

Presidential Election Results

Four key factors identified by political scientists forecasting elections:

• Partisan breakdown of the electorate.

• Approval ratings of the incumbent party's president.

• State of the economy leading up to the election.

• Incumbency.